Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

We present an online method for guaranteeing calibration of quantile forecasts at multiple quantile levels simultaneously. A sequence of $α$-level quantile forecasts is calibrated if the forecasts are larger than the target value at an $α$-fraction of time steps. We introduce a lightweight method called Multi-Level Quantile Tracker (MultiQT) that wraps around any existing point or quantile forecaster to produce corrected forecasts guaranteed to achieve calibration, even against adversarial distribution shifts, while ensuring that the forecasts are ordered -- e.g., the 0.5-level quantile forecast is never larger than the 0.6-level forecast. Furthermore, the method comes with a no-regret guarantee that implies it will not worsen the performance of an existing forecaster, asymptotically, with respect to the quantile loss. In experiments, we find that MultiQT significantly improves the calibration of real forecasters in epidemic and energy forecasting problems.

We introduce a unified, end-to-end framework that seamlessly integrates object detection and pose estimation with a versatile onboarding process. Our pipeline begins with an onboarding stage that generates object representations from either traditional 3D CAD models or, in their absence, by rapidly reconstructing a high-fidelity neural representation (NeRF) from multi-view images. Given a test image, our system first employs the CNOS detector to localize target objects. For each detection, our novel pose estimation module, OPFormer, infers the precise 6D pose. The core of OPFormer is a transformer-based architecture that leverages a foundation model for robust feature extraction. It uniquely learns a comprehensive object representation by jointly encoding multiple template views and enriches these features with explicit 3D geometric priors using Normalized Object Coordinate Space (NOCS). A decoder then establishes robust 2D-3D correspondences to determine the final pose. Evaluated on the challenging BOP benchmarks, our integrated system demonstrates a strong balance between accuracy and efficiency, showcasing its practical applicability in both model-based and model-free scenarios.

This document may contain harmful content. This work aims to investigate how different Large Language Models (LLMs) alignment methods affect the models' responses to prompt attacks. We selected open source models based on the most common alignment methods, namely, Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), and Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF). We conducted a systematic analysis using statistical methods to verify how sensitive the Attack Success Rate (ASR) is when we apply variations to prompts designed to elicit inappropriate content from LLMs. Our results show that even small prompt modifications can significantly change the Attack Success Rate (ASR) according to the statistical tests we run, making the models more or less susceptible to types of attack. Critically, our results demonstrate that running existing "attack benchmarks" alone may not be sufficient to elicit all possible vulnerabilities of both models and alignment methods. This paper thus contributes to ongoing efforts on model attack evaluation by means of systematic and statistically-based analyses of the different alignment methods and how sensitive their ASR is to prompt variation.